The NZ property market when you factor out the influence of Auckland is most certainly active and not as yet showing a downturn. This is in marked contrast to the Auckland market where stagnation persists as it has done now for close on 3 years.
Whilst sales of property across the country are stable and undoubtedly down on the peak of activity a few years ago, the pace of the market is lively and as a result median sales prices continue an upward trend, closing the gap with the Auckland market.
Below is the fuller analysis with details of volume sales, median sales price and clearance rate to provide rich insight.
In the past 12 months to June of this year, total sales of property outside of Auckland rose 2.3% as compared to June last year with a total of 54,348. This total is well up on the 10 year average of 47,000 indicating an active market. As the chart below shows the current level is down 15% on the peak of sales in the recent decade of August 2016.
As to the likely trend in sales volumes the chart below tracking the variance in monthly sales as compared to prior year shows that the recent period has seen a shallow fall in sales volumes but with the June sales down just 4% as compared to last year the cycle would indicate that sales volumes may well strengthen in the coming months.
The median sales price for NZ property outside of Auckland continues to show a trend of steady and inexorable rise. This is so different to the Auckland market were prices languish a repetitive cycle anchored around $850,000. In June the median sales price for the country excluding Auckland was $485,000 which is up 5.4% on the figure in June last year.
The chart very clearly shows the steady rise which began in November 2011, nearly 8 years ago when median sales prices had just reached $300,000. In this time the monthly sale price has shown an unbroken run of year-on-year increases taking it to the current level of $485,000 representing a 56% increase over the past 8 years. The chart below very ably reflects this unbroken run of year-on-year rises.
The tracking of the clearance rate for property sales as a ratio of listings continues to support the view that the property market across the country outside of Auckland is strong. The current level of 73% is edging close to the peak 3 years ago of 74%. This leading indicator is a valuable surrogate for true property demand as it indicates the extent to which listings are matching the demand of buyers and visa versa. It is so interesting to contrast this level of clearance to Auckland were the current level is 54% down from a peak in 2015 of 76%.