The latest property sales data from Barfoot & Thompson for September recorded the 4th straight month with sales were around 1,000. This level may be an early indication that the Auckland market may be reaching a new plateau as the seasonal adjusted stats show in the chart below.
Lets be clear this new level is a significant increase of around 24% as compared to the same period last year when seen over a rolling 6 month period. However as can be seen from the trendline the plateauing may have started.
The current 6 month average (seasonally adjusted) would seem to be around 1,000 a month, that would take the current moving annual total for the whole of the Auckland region based on B&T average marketshare of 40% to 30,000 - this level is in fact the level of sales that were seen in Auckland during the majority of the period prior to the market crash in 2008. It would be therefore possible to infur that property sales may not continue to rise month-on-month during the rest of the year, they will still though post increases as compared to prior year.
It will be valuable to look more in detail at this situation once the national figures from the Real Estate Institute are released in the next week.
Property prices - Auckland
Turning from sales data to pricing the picture is pretty clear. Prices are continuing to rise. The chart below makes this abundantly clear.
The last 12 months has seen a very significant rise in property prices as represented by the sales of properties listed by Barfoot & Thompson. Now this is where it is important to make that point - this data is the sales of property from one agency in Auckland; albeit the biggest, with at times over 40% market share but still just one company. The other point is that the data in the chart is average sales price.
The average sales price is not regarded by economists as a particularly reliable metric when it comes to house sales as extreme property priced sales can easily distort the data. The more reliable data is median price or better still stratified mean. Both of these data points are provided by the REINZ in their reports, again the September data should be available within the week so that will provide a better indication.
Having made that statement there is value in the Barfoot & Thompson data as a guide and examining the trend line it does provide an early picture, that whilst the actual average price of property sold by B&T in September was down slightly, the trend is most definitely upwards.