The property market in October certainly shows growing confidence (in Auckland at least)

by Alistair Helm in


The property market in October certainly shows growing confidence (in Auckland at least)

The Real Estate Institute released the October statistics to the headline of the "market roars into life" - well certainly it was a very active month with sales up 33% on the same month last year and property prices setting new records.

I think it is useful to see the property market as an industry employing as it does over 10,000 active sale agents and transacting over 72,000 properties in the past 12 months. The value of these annual level of transactions has grown in the space of 12 months by $7 billion; growing from $25.6bn in the 12 months to October 2011 to $32.6bn in the past 12 months.

For me the question remains - is this an Auckland phenomenon or is the "market roaring into life" across other parts of the country?

Just last month prompted by this question I examined the make up of the property market and the representation of Auckland within it and came up with the conclusion that the activity in the NZ property market is largely the Auckland factor. Applying the latest data for October to the same set of historical sales data confirms this continuing trend. 

In October Auckland represented 39.4% of all sales nationally, up from 39.2% in September and up from 36% a year ago. The chart below shows this trend with the red line representing the moving annual total percentage which is growing very strongly through 37% of all sales.

When viewed as sales tracking on a 12 month moving average basis the divergence between Auckland and the rest of NZ is very clear with the gap continuing to widen, although there was some pick up from outside of Auckland. 

As to the other major regions of Wellington and Canterbury, their respective performance is viewed in these charts below.

Wellington is showing some signs of growth, nothing of the order of Auckland and certainly fairly flat over the past 2 years.

Canterbury whilst showing some strong growth through 2011 has seen a plateauing in for the majority of 2012.