The latest batch of property statistics provide what I think is a vital support to the view that the Auckland property market is cooling.
A year ago the Auckland market was powering on at a pace. In its September 2013 monthly housing market update Barfoot & Thompson reported year-on-year sales up 14%, with the median sales price up 14%. At the same time the inventory of property for sale on the market as measured by the Realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report slumped to just 11.5 weeks down from 17 weeks a year earlier .
Examining each of these key metrics of the property market a year later we will see just how much as changed in the past year and supports the view in my opinion that the heat has certainly come out of the Auckland market.
Property Sales
Sales are the leading indicator of property demand and as the chart below shows the trend is down.
Monthly sales as reported by Barfoot & Thompson who representing close to 40% of all Auckland sales provide a robust view of the market. Their data shows sales in the 9 months so far of 2014 below the 2013 level for 8 of those 9 months, with the differential if anything growing wider in the past 3 months with September down 13% as compared to a year ago.
Listings
New listings coming onto the market provide a view as to the confidence in the market amongst sellers and as the chart below shows the level of new listings is down in all but 2 of the months of 2014.
From Realestate.co.nz data total listings across the Auckland region in the first 9 months of 2014 amount to a total of 30,449 as compared to the same 9 months of 2013 at 32,484 down 6%.
Inventory
With sales in the first 9 months of 2014 down 12% and the level of new listings down 6% it would come as no surprise to see that the inventory of property for sale has been rising in 2014 as the chart below demonstrates.
This metric of inventory of property on the market uses the current rate of sales to estimate the time it would take in theory to sell all the property on the market at the end of September. It certainly shows a significant improvement in the weeks of inventory. In case you were wondering if the actual number of listings was higher this year than last year the chart below will answer that easily. It may not be as significant a rise in inventory but there are more properties for sale at the end of September this year than last and of course fewer are selling.
Sales Price
Sales price tends to lag sales volumes which tend to reflect demand and supply as measured by inventory and new listings. The chart below based on Barfoot & Thompson median sales price indexed to the January sales price in each of the past 3 years shows a strong start to this year but since April the median price has hardly moved with the September level barely up on August.
So in summary. Sales are down, new listings are not flowing onto the market as sellers lack confidence, this is lessening any pressure in the market from buyers who are subdued and as a consequence the pressure of constrained inventory has lessened and this has signalled a plateauing of property sales price. In short - the heat has come out of the Auckland property market.
Trade Me Property today released a new competitive attack on its rival Realestate.co.nz with its inaugural Property Price Index. This report provides insight into the trends in asking price by region and also by property type. In my view vital information from a credible source that will be greatly appreciated by the real estate and financial community.
In launching this new report Trade Me Property has literally picked up the baton from Realestate.co.nz - a baton it seems Realestate.co.nz was only too happy to relinquish, but this may turn out to be a decision it comes to regret in time.
The NZ Property Report from Realestate.co.nz was conceived of over 5 years ago and has become a vital insight into the supply side of the property market, data that was quoted and reviewed by financial institutions and real estate industry as well as the media. Sadly the last 12 months and especially the last 6 months has seen less and less effort focused on the report by the management of Realestate.co.nz. The lack of focus started with the timeliness. When it first came out and for the first 3 years it was published on the 1st day of each month and the media become accustomed to this information which built brand profile and credibility. Latterly however it often took until the 15th of the month before being published. Added to tardiness was incompleteness and lack of openness. The release of the monthly information ceased to be a complete report and became simply a press release and just last month the data was not even published online and no access to the raw data has been made available. At this time the online source still only shows the July report. Clearly Realestate.co.nz attach little importance to being judged and viewed as a respected knowledge base and thought leader - that is the baton that Trade Me Property is grasping.
So what is there to like about this new report from Trade Me Property?
As with all things from Trade Me there is a simplicity and clarity of communication I admire, clean graphics aid comprehension.
However the real value is in the detail. They are the first source to have segmented any property information by property type. To describe NZ property sales price by one number when that number is made up of such a variety of differing house sizes and types from apartments to townhouses and units is too simplistic but that is what all the other source do - be it REINZ or QV.
Trade Me Property Price Index details the typical listing price for 1 & 2 bedroom houses as compared to 3 & 4 bedroom houses and the trend over the past year. Who would have thought that within the headline price of property in Wellington rising at an annual rate of 6.8% that large 5+ bedroom homes are down 5.2% over the past year.
The overriding benefit of this report is timeliness, being produced on the 2nd day of the month - ahead of all other property reports on the September data. This is how it should be as a property portal has the data at its finger tips to compute and present in minutes.
As to future wishes. I hope the raw data will be published so those organisations who have found the Realestate.co.nz so valuable will have access to this alternative data which is potentially more comprehensive as it features private listings as well as licensed agents (of course the boycott of Trade Me Property by some agencies may still limit their ability to represent the whole market but statistically this data should be representative). It will also be great to get more granular data so people can see the trend in listing price for a suburb and for 1 & 2 bedroom houses in a particular suburb over time - now that would be great.
In my view Trade Me Property has made a smart move and Realestate.co.nz have dropped the ball - let's see if there is a reaction and Realestate.co.nz realise how important this move has been.
