Have a read, if you will of this article which was published last Saturday, the 15th September regarding the trend in house prices over the past 5 years.
"House prices have become so dull that it is
tempting to think they are no longer the mainstay topic of conversation at
Since 2009, the two major yardsticks of
house prices – QV and the Real Estate Institute indices – have been broadly flat,
rising in mid-single digits in 2009, then seeing either small falls or rises in
2010 and 2011.
The lack of direction in the market has
surprised many, not least the real estate industry and the banks.
At the start of 2009, there were those who predicted
a 15 per cent fall in prices.
The REINZ Stratified Price index ended the
year six per cent up. While market predictions proved closer to the mark in
2010, in 2011 the commentators expected a fall of more than six per cent. The index
rose by 3 per cent.
But many commentators still predict dire
falls. Sceptics say prices remain above long-term trends for affordability. The
average house price on REINZ 2011 numbers was 4.7 times the average salary,
against a long-term average of four.
The flat market also disguises two trends.
Stripping out inflation, house prices have fallen. And there has been a
well-understood divergence between prices in Auckland and elsewhere.
So where next? Analysts foresee a flat
market followed by slow growth. This still means falls in real terms, but it is
a lot better for homeowners than the nightmare predictions.
Mortgage availability is improving, though
slowly, with lenders offering higher multiples of salaries and higher
percentages of buying prices.
Meanwhile, with rents rising significantly,
buy-to-let opportunities have become more attractive, bringing other buyers
into the market."
Now having read this piece, let me tell you firstly that I did not write it.
This article was published in the UK last Saturday - it was not an article about the NZ property market. (I have ammended the article by inserting NZ stats and references).
The fact is that the original UK article which I have pasted in full below for comparison, was written about the UK property market. What is so striking is the similarity - line by line, fact by fact the parallels are uncanny. The UK property market would from this comparison appear to have gone through a near identical rollercoaster ride as the NZ market over the past 5 years. To be clear the article above has been changed by me to include the references to data sources (with links) and to the actual NZstatistics.
Now here is the UK original article.....